Comments on: Estimation http://simonpalmer.com Wondering whether anyone will ever read this... Mon, 10 Jun 2013 03:04:11 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.com/ By: Andrew Shepherd http://simonpalmer.com/estimation/#comment-9833 Mon, 24 May 2010 17:52:48 +0000 http://simonpalmer.com/#comment-9833 Absolutely 100% agree with you! (I was going to say 99.99% agree, but realised that would be spurious accuracy).
In my strategy development work I’m always facing an absence of data in one place or another; sometimes a quick phone call can provide a reasonable guess, but where that fails I’m always willing to make an estimate myself. Actually, I quite often make two estimates:
“I’d be very surprised if it was more than XX”
and
“It would be astonishing if it were less than YY”

The fascinating thing is that when figures like these are plugged into one’s strategic model of a business or opportunity, the obvious direction to take is rarely affected by whether the upper or the lower figure is used.

It also helps – in my view – to be completely open with clients about the need for estimates and the figures chosen; only if the management team really believe the strategic conclusion for themselves will they truly strive to deliver on the resulting plan. Showing its resilience – or sensitivity – can galvanise people into action, either to immediately act on the strategy, or to resolve the uncertainty before acting…

]]>